It looks like we’re headed to a pivot point in Canada-U.S. history: negotiations, after the election, on a new economic and security partnership.
It’s obviously too early to predict which way it will go. But we can make some predictions about U.S. goals, based on recent public statements and on well-documented demands that span multiple administrations.
The easiest call of all? Dairy. Trump brings it up constantly, and will be itching to get more market access for farmers in Wisconsin, a swing state he carried twice.
The U.S. has other trade gripes, notably the digital services tax, which penalizes U.S. tech giants.
On security, a couple of U.S. demands are easily foreseen: more military spending — and faster, especially in the Arctic. Expect ramped-up talk about developing Canada’s critical minerals.
But here’s a potential wild card: ballistic missile defence. Canada has traditionally refused to join the program.
Yet now, as the U.S. looks to refurbish its program to deal with a range of new technological threats, some Americans detect a recent openness from Ottawa.
Will Canadian political parties be keen to talk about dairy access and missile defence, in the midst of an election? Certainly not the Liberals and Conservatives.
These are controversial and potentially vote-losing issues for the bigger parties. While the Bloc Québécois and NDP might push for details, the bigger parties will have every incentive to punt this issue until after the election.
